Global Warming

or, more generally, Climate Change

area of Environmentalism concern

• see esp Copenhagen Consensus

my rough beliefs (Jun'2006)

• Global Warming is almost certainly happening
• there's much less certainty as to how much of it is due to human action vs just variation (Little Ice Age vs Medieval Warm Period)
• there's even less certainty as to how catastrophic the effects will be
  • see David Friedman
• there's even less certainty as to whether any realistic changes in human action could reverse/stop the effect
  • and how extreme the Side Effects would be
    • GeoEngineering could really screw up (see SnowPiercer)
    • increasing energy costs could increase starvation
• some Public Policy that might make sense
  • end various forms of subsidy of Cheap Oil to make its true costs (Energy Accounting) more transparent, thus supporting increased investment in new technology that might help (Technological Determinism)
  • Carbon Tax
  • ???

Jan'2015: Matt Ridley on his "ClimateLukewarmer" beliefs, and the attacks they garner. I think recent global warming is real, mostly man-made and will continue but I no longer think it is likely to be dangerous and I think its slow and erratic progress so far is what we should expect in the future. That last year was the warmest yet, in some data sets, but only by a smidgen more than 2005, is precisely in line with such lukewarm thinking.