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James Pinkerton thinks that a Contain Ment policy will be best in the Middle East/IRan.

In 1946 (ColdWar), three schools of thought emerged; we can dub them the Conciliators, the Rollbackers, and the Containers... "The main element of any United States policy toward the Soviet Union must be that of a long-term, patient but firm and vigilant containment of Russian expansive tendencies." But even as George Kennan saw the Soviets as a threat, he also saw the risk of America's overplaying its hand; in the very next sentence, he added, "It is important to note, however, that such a policy has nothing to do with outward histrionics: with threats or blustering or superfluous gestures of outward 'toughness.'" So Kennan's keep-cool "containment" led, naturally, to the Cold War.

Rollback didn't work out as planned in IRaq, but the neo-Burnhamites -- oops, Neo Conservative-s -- are still gung ho for mo' military action... the true essence of rollback, as "Burnham the Liberator" would have insisted, is not just toppling the enemy regime, but replacing it with a new friendly government. And yet such confident talk is conspicuously absent from current discussions of IRan... Indeed, the emerging reality is that Muslims don't like the West... If so, then knocking over the Ahmadinejad government might not help us much, even if we knew how to do it, because the new bosses would be about the same as the old bosses... So we will settle for rolling back just their nuclear/WMD ambitions, as they become visible to us, leaving the populations to stew in their increasingly Salafist juices. Here's a prediction: this particular neocon scenario won't work... eventually, after they get bombed enough, with or without Ahmadinejad, the Iranians will sober up and realize that they need a Big Friend, to protect them from us... And the biggest potential Friend of all is ChinA.

z2006-02-22- Pinkerton Containment Iran Middle East

Interview with Chet Richards. FourGw, etc.

  • Contain Ment basically says, "What we want to do is keep the threat level down to something that we can stand ,while staying actively involved in the rest of the world through other means to try to lure people to us."... Well, go back to George Kennan's original idea. That's where the term containment comes from. He said to contain the Soviet Union militarily so we didn't have World War III, but then to try to involve them in as many things as you can. The other thing about Kennan is that by '48 or so, he was saying, "Hey, they're contained. Now we really need to start trying to involve ourselves with them." Everyone ignored him, and he had to spend the rest of his life saying this wasn't the containment he had in mind... Saddam Hussein was so weak, it didn't take very much to contain him.

  • We're spending half a trillion dollars, and when you look around, who's it going to defend us from? It didn't defend us from AlQaeda.

  • (re risks from private security companies - PMC-s): There is no doubt in my mind that there's going to be abuses. Then again, the Declaration Of Independence lists all the abuses of standing military forces against the people. The thing the Founding athers were just deathly afraid of, and thought the biggest threat to people's liberties, was large standing military forces (Standing Army). Look down through history at all the times that armies have turned against their own citizenry. At least on the private side, they'll have some competition. It's difficult for one of those companies to do too much damage, because companies can bring the abuses of their competitors to the surface. If Black Water starts doing things that are too egregious, there's an incentive for a Triple Canopy to rat them out.

z2006-07-22- Chet Richards Interview
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